Abstract
Poster 15: Predicting Cognitive Decline: Another Method for Stratifying Samples?
Neurotherapeutics, Vol.6(1), pp.208-209
2009
DOI: 10.1016/j.nurt.2008.10.016
Abstract
Neuropsychology uses several methods to determine whether meaningful cognitive change has occurred. Standardized regression based (SRB) formulas, which predict follow-up cognition from baseline cognition, are one such method. The current analyses examined the feasibility of SRBs to predict cognitive decline in PREDICT-HD.
Using baseline data on two cognitive tests (Symbol Digit Modalities Test [SDMT]; speeded tapping [TAP]) from the non-gene expanded controls from PREDICT-HD, SRB formulas were calculated via multiple regression to predict follow-up performances on those same two cognitive tests. These SRB formulas were then applied to both groups (gene expanded but prediagnosed; controls) to generate “predicted” follow-up scores, which were compared to “observed” (i.e., actual) follow-up scores.
In controls, baseline SDMT and age best predicted follow-up SDMT scores (R
2 = .59,
p < 0.001). When this formula was applied to both groups, 5% of controls had observed follow-up SDMT scores that were significantly worse than their predicted follow-up scores. However, in gene expanded participants, 10% had significantly worse observed than predicted SDMT scores. Closeness to onset in the expanded group led to greater discrepancies between observed and predicted follow-up SDMT scores (6%, 7%, and 20% impaired for far, mid, and near-to-onset, respectively). For the TAP task, baseline scores also significantly predicted follow-up scores in controls (R
2 = .46,
p < 0.001). Only 1% of the controls had observed follow-up TAP scores that significantly differed from their predicted follow-up scores. In contrast, 22% of gene expanded participants had this significant discrepancy, and closeness-to-onset was again related to greater discrepancies (7%, 17%, and 44%, respectively).
SRB formulas were able to identify cognitive decline in this sample of pre-HD individuals, with closeness-to-onset being associated with greater discrepancies between observed and predicted follow-up cognitive scores. Although these formulas might have clinical implications, they also could be used to stratify samples for clinical trials by identifying those individuals who are progressing toward an HD diagnosis. Future studies might examine whether SRBs within a group (e.g., within “near”) might be more sensitive than between groups (e.g., case vs. control).
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Poster 15: Predicting Cognitive Decline: Another Method for Stratifying Samples?
- Creators
- K. Duff - University of IowaL.J. Beglinger - University of IowaJ.C. Stout - Monash UniversityJ.S. Paulsen - University of IowaPREDICT-HD Investigators of the Huntington Study Group
- Resource Type
- Abstract
- Publication Details
- Neurotherapeutics, Vol.6(1), pp.208-209
- Publisher
- Elsevier Inc
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.nurt.2008.10.016
- ISSN
- 1933-7213
- eISSN
- 1878-7479
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 2009
- Academic Unit
- Psychiatry; Psychological and Brain Sciences
- Record Identifier
- 9984384322302771
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