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Optimism Biases
Book chapter

Optimism Biases

Paul D Windschitl and Jillian O'Rourke Stuart
The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, pp.431-455
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
12/29/2015
DOI: 10.1002/9781118468333.ch15

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Abstract

This chapter discusses various types of optimism biases and the causes of those biases. It suggests that the field sorely needs more consistency in its use of terms related to optimism biases. The chapter discusses definitions for relevant terms and identify key features of various forms of bias. It also provides a framework for understanding relations among those terms and effects. Then, the chapter talks about optimism in studies involving self‐other comparisons, isolating a subset of optimism biases (unrealistic‐optimism, better‐than‐average, and shared‐circumstance effects). Finally, the chapter elucidates classic and recent findings from another subset of studies, namely those on the desirability bias. This is the subset of studies that are designed for, and relevant to, testing the question of whether outcome desirability has a biasing influence on expectations about that outcome. The chapter also mentions four types of accounts for self‐other overoptimism.
 better‐than‐average effect desirability bias optimism biases self‐other overoptimism shared‐circumstance effect unrealistic‐optimism effect

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