Accuracy of a GIS-based small-area population projection method used in spatial decision support systems

This paper describes a recently developed GIS-based population projection method for small spatial units, known as the Modifiable Spatial Filter (MSF) method, and evaluates the accuracy of its projections with respect to a parameter that controls the sample size of the data that are used to estimate projection parameters. This assessment is made with respect to average absolute eiror, average relative error, distribution of absolute error, and absence of bias for subgroups. Results show that MSF projections appear to be stable when the parameter is greater than fifteen.