Dissertation
Predictive modeling of the relationships between property value and secondary school music competition results
University of Iowa
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), University of Iowa
Spring 2026
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to evaluate assessed value (AV) as a proxy metric of socioeconomic status (SES) in analyzing competitive school music events involving public noncharter high schools in Missouri. I also compared statistical relationships of AV with other commonly used economic and demographic predictors. I examined three music event formats: competitive field marching scores from a geographically diverse sample of festivals, district and state-level honor ensemble audition results, and large-group concert band festival ratings. The predictor variables against which I am assessing these outcomes were aggregate assessed value (AV), assessed value per-pupil (AVP), school enrollment (ENR), free/reduced lunch eligibility percentage (FRP), median household income (MHI), urbanicity (URB, percentage of students residing in urban areas), and racial diversity (BIPOC). Results indicated that AV was consistently a strong predictor of competition results across formats. AV, FRP, and URB comprised the strongest multivariate predictive model of marching band scores. AV, in conjunction with FRP, formed a consistently strong predictive model of honor ensemble results. ENR was the strongest individual predictor of ratings in rated large group band events, while AV was the strongest economic predictor. These results align with existing research showing that economic conditions shape access to competitive success. Additionally, these results parallel those made by educational researchers outside music education that linked property value to educational outcomes. Further, these results highlight the importance of selecting multidimensional socioeconomic indicators when examining music education outcomes. I finish with a discussion of the implications of these findings for practicing educators, policymakers, and organizational leaders.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Predictive modeling of the relationships between property value and secondary school music competition results
- Creators
- Jared Shulse
- Contributors
- Mary Cohen (Advisor)Ariel Aloe (Committee Member)Adam Harry (Committee Member)Jeremy Manternach (Committee Member)
- Resource Type
- Dissertation
- Degree Awarded
- Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), University of Iowa
- Degree in
- Music (Music Education)
- Date degree season
- Spring 2026
- Publisher
- University of Iowa
- Number of pages
- xiv, 164 pages
- Copyright
- Copyright 2026 Jared Shulse
- Language
- English
- Date submitted
- 04/27/2026
- Description illustrations
- illustrations (some color), color map
- Description bibliographic
- Includes bibliographical references (page 125-141).
- Public Abstract (ETD)
In this study, I explore how property values help explain why some Missouri public high schools do better than others in music competitions. I focused on assessed value, the taxable percentage of property values, and explored how these values interact and combine with other measurements to predict competition results. I studied the results of marching band competitions, honor ensemble auditions, and concert band festivals. In addition to assessed value, I utilized free and reduced-lunch eligibility percentage, household incomes, school enrollment, urban location, and racial demographic information in my analysis.
Assessed value was consistently a strong predictor of success. In many cases it was a better predictor than enrollment or other more commonly used economic figures. These results suggest that competitive success in music is influenced by financial resources, and not just student effort or strong teaching. This matters because public perception and professional reputations of music teachers are often built on competitive success, even though schools do not begin with the same opportunities or advantages.
By carrying out this study, I add to a growing body of research that shows the impact of economic inequality on educational outcomes, within and outside of music education. These results also suggest the importance of using multiple ways of measuring community wealth and poverty when conducting educational research. I end by discussing what these results mean for music education going forward.
- Academic Unit
- School of Music
- Record Identifier
- 9985176973102771
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