Files and links (1)
PhD Thesis -Weidong-Zhang2.28 MB
Embargoed Access, Embargo ends: 08/30/2026
Dissertation
Why states become aggressive
University of Iowa
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), University of Iowa
Summer 2024
DOI: 10.25820/etd.007635
Abstract
Why do states become revisionists and initiate assertive foreign policies, including international conflict? Various international relations theories prioritize different factors in explaining state revisionism, yet there are some gaps that need further investigation, including domestic unrest levels, existing ethnic group power, and Great Power support to their protégés. In this thesis, I examine internal and external factors that help explain variance in states’ revisionist behaviors. Internally, I investigate how the level of domestic turmoil and ethnic power relations within a state affect political leaders’ calculation of gains and losses, thus affecting their propensity to initiate diversionary conflict against other states. Externally, I explore how support from other states, especially Great Powers, affects state leaders’ willingness to initiate maritime disputes.
The first empirical paper finds that there is a curvilinear rather than a linear relationship between domestic turmoil and the likelihood of initiating a diversionary conflict by state leaders. Furthermore, results show that elite unrest is more likely to lead to a diversionary conflict than mass unrest. The second empirical paper explores how the power-sharing among ethnic groups within a state affects the leaders’ tendency to initiate a diversionary conflict. It finds that for states with institutions that include ethnic groups into the national government or grants them regional autonomy, with the increase of domestic turmoil, leaders are more likely to initiate diversionary conflict with other states. Ethnic power relations condition the effect of domestic unrest on diversionary conflict. The third paper investigates the moral hazard problem at sea and finds that due to the unique feature of maritime issues such as initial claimants being favored by customary international law, potential challengers with great power support are more likely to have diplomatic maritime claims.
These findings deepen our understanding of why states enact revisionist foreign policies. The study shows how domestic political conditions and external support influence states’ willingness to initiate conflicts against other states. Witnessing more diplomatic maritime disputes, the role of Great Powers in the foreign policy of their protégés should not be ignored. Better understanding of these internal and external factors can help policymakers manage conflictual interactions among states.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Why states become aggressive
- Creators
- Weidong Zhang
- Contributors
- Sara Mitchell (Advisor)Kelly Kadera (Committee Member)Brian Lai (Committee Member)Christopher Butler (Committee Member)
- Resource Type
- Dissertation
- Degree Awarded
- Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), University of Iowa
- Degree in
- Political Science
- Date degree season
- Summer 2024
- Publisher
- University of Iowa
- DOI
- 10.25820/etd.007635
- Number of pages
- xii, 185 pages
- Copyright
- Copyright 2024 Weidong Zhang
- Language
- English
- Date submitted
- 06/21/2024
- Description illustrations
- illustrations, graphs, tables
- Description bibliographic
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 166-185).
- Public Abstract (ETD)
- This thesis investigated the factors that make states become revisionists but are understudied by the existing literature. Traditionally, scholars have investigated why states become revisionists from the system level, state level, and substate level. All these explanations assume a clear calculation of costs and benefits for states to take revisionist actions. But since state revisionist behaviors are very risky and the results are full of uncertainty, it is not enough by only investigating causes of state revisionism based on cost-benefit calculations for states. Instead, I draw on literature that studies why states and their leaders take risky behaviors even in front of highly uncertain conditions, which can deepen our understanding of revisionism and also bring us new insights. Specificallydomestic level of unrest and ethnic power-sharing as well as external support from the Great Powers greatly affect states’ revisionist tendencies. Under the pressure of domestic ethnic groups that have a higher level of power-sharing with the central government, with the increase of domestic unrest, state leaders may take aggressive foreign behaviors even with a moderate level of civil unrest. If such a state is supported by Great Powers, the likelihood of revisionist tendency is further increased. The first empirical paper finds that there is a curvilinear between domestic turmoil and the likelihood of initiating a diversionary conflict by state leaders. The second chapter finds that for states with institutions that include ethnic groups into the national government or grant them regional autonomy, with the increase of domestic turmoil, leaders are more likely to initiate diversionary conflict with other states. The third paper investigates the moral hazard problem at sea and finds that due to the unique feature of maritime issues such as initial claimants being favored by customary international law, potential challengers with great power support are more likely to have diplomatic maritime claims.
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984697846802771
Metrics
1 Record Views