Journal article
A Generational Shift: Race and the Declining Lifetime Risk of Imprisonment
Demography, Vol.60(4), pp.977-1003
08/01/2023
DOI: 10.1215/00703370-10863378
PMID: 37435965
Abstract
Mass incarceration fundamentally altered the life course for a generation of Amer i can men, but sustained declines in impris on ment in recent years raise ques- tions about how incar cer a tion is shap ing cur rent gen er a tions. This study makes three pri mary con tri bu tions to a fuller under stand ing of the con tem po rary land scape of incar- cer a tion in the United States. First, we assess the scope of decarceration. Between 1999 and 2019, the Black male incar cer a tion rate dropped by 44%, and nota ble declines in Black male impris on ment were evi dent in all 50 states. Second, our life table anal y sis dem on strates marked declines in the life time risks of incar cer a tion. For Black men, the life time risk of incar cer a tion declined by nearly half from 1999 to 2019. We esti mate that less than 1 in 5 Black men born in 2001 will be imprisoned, com pared with 1 in 3 for the 1981 birth cohort. Third, decarceration has shifted the institutional expe ri ences of young adult hood. In 2009, young Black men were much more likely to expe ri ence impris on ment than college grad u a tion. Ten years later, this trend had reversed, with Black men more likely to grad u ate college than go to prison. Our results sug gest that prison has played a smaller role in the insti tu tional land scape for the most recent gen-eration com pared with the generation exposed to the peak of mass incarceration.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- A Generational Shift: Race and the Declining Lifetime Risk of Imprisonment
- Creators
- Jason P. Robey - University at Albany, State University of New YorkMichael Massoglia - University of Wisconsin–MadisonMichael T. Light - University of Wisconsin–Madison
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Demography, Vol.60(4), pp.977-1003
- DOI
- 10.1215/00703370-10863378
- PMID
- 37435965
- ISSN
- 0070-3370
- eISSN
- 1533-7790
- Publisher
- Duke Univ Press
- Number of pages
- 27
- Grant note
- T32 HD007014 / Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD) T32HD007014 / Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; United States Department of Health & Human Services; National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 08/01/2023
- Academic Unit
- Sociology and Criminology
- Record Identifier
- 9985182519202771
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