Journal article
A POLITICAL HISTORY FORECAST OF THE 2024 US CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
PS, political science & politics, Vol.58(2), pp.274-279
04/2025
DOI: 10.1017/S1049096524000957
Abstract
ABSTRACT: Statesman and scholar Alexis de Tocqueville once noted, "History is a gallery of pictures in which there are few originals and many copies." In other words, history has a habit of repeating itself, and we can deduce cycles and patterns that will likely recur. Such stability and inertia should bode well for prediction. Nevertheless, when it comes to election forecasting, especially in the US, most prognostications rely on short-term political fundamentals measuring macroeconomic performance or government or leader popularity. In this contribution, we adopt a structural approach but depart from existing literature by focusing on historical party and governance dynamics in the vein of de Tocqueville to establish if they offer solid guidance as to the performance of the Democrats in US Congressional elections. Our ex-post models provide solid predictions of which party will control Congress and the Democrat's seat tally in each chamber between 1946 and 2022. This creates conditions to assume Political History may help us forecast Campaign 2024. In this contribution, we apply this Political History Model to predict the 2024 Congressional elections.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- A POLITICAL HISTORY FORECAST OF THE 2024 US CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS
- Creators
- Michael Lewis-Beck - University of IowaStephen Quinlan - GESIS - Leibniz-Institute for the Social Sciences
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- PS, political science & politics, Vol.58(2), pp.274-279
- DOI
- 10.1017/S1049096524000957
- ISSN
- 1049-0965
- eISSN
- 1537-5935
- Publisher
- CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS; CAMBRIDGE
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 10/15/2024
- Date published
- 04/2025
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984736737402771
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