Journal article
A Path Toward Short-Term Probabilistic Flash Flood Prediction
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.104(3), pp.E585-E605
03/01/2023
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0026.1
Abstract
There are ongoing efforts to move beyond the current paradigm of using deter-ministic products driven by observation-only data to make binary warning decisions. Recent works have focused on severe thunderstorm hazards, such as hail, lightning, and tornadoes. This study discusses one of the first steps toward having probabilistic information combined with convective-scale short-term precipitation forecasts available for the prediction and warning of flash flooding. Participants in the Hydrometeorology Testbed-MRMS Hydrology (HMT-Hydro) experiment evaluated several probabilistic-based hydrologic model output from the probabilistic Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (PRO-FLASH) system during experimental real-time warning operations. Evaluation of flash flood warning performance combined with product sur-veys highlighted how forecasters perceived biases within the probabilistic information and how the different probabilistic approaches influenced warnings that were verified versus those that were unverified. The incorporation of the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) ensemble precipita-tion forecasts into the PRO-FLASH product generation provided an opportunity to evaluate the first coupling of subhourly convective-scale ensemble precipitation forecasts with probabilistic hydrologic modeling at the flash flood warning time scale through archived case simulations. The addition of WoFS precipitation forecasts resulted in an increase in warning lead time, including four events with >= 29 min of additional lead time but with increased probabilities of false alarms. Additional feedback from participants provided insights into the application of WoFS forecasts into warning decisions, including how flash flood expectations and confidence evolved for verified flash flood events and how forecast probabilistic products can positively influence the communications of the potential for flash flooding.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- A Path Toward Short-Term Probabilistic Flash Flood Prediction
- Creators
- Steven M. Martinaitis - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesKatie A. Wilson - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesNusrat Yussouf - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesJonathan J. Gourley - NOAA National Severe Storms LaboratoryHumberto Vergara - NOAA National Severe Storms LaboratoryTiffany C. Meyer - University Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchPamela L. Heinselman - NOAA National Severe Storms LaboratoryAlan Gerard - NOAA National Severe Storms LaboratoryKodi L. Berry - NOAA National Severe Storms LaboratoryAndres Vergara - University of OklahomaJustin Monroe - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.104(3), pp.E585-E605
- Publisher
- Amer Meteorological Soc
- DOI
- 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0026.1
- ISSN
- 0003-0007
- eISSN
- 1520-0477
- Number of pages
- 21
- Grant note
- U.S. Department of Commerce NA16OAR4320072; NA21OAR4320204 / NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreements NA17OAR4590281 / Hydrometeorology Testbed Program
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/01/2023
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984446530202771
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