Journal article
A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel?
PS, political science & politics, Vol.46(3), pp.479-480
07/2013
DOI: 10.1017/S1049096513000814
Abstract
Our political economy model has correctly forecasted the 1998 and 2005 elections. However, in 2002 we predicted a tight race to the benefit of the Christian Democrats(CDU)/Christian Socialists(CSU)-Free Democratic Party (FDP) opposition, so underestimating the narrow defeat of the FDP by the Green Party. In the German political system, proportional representation makes single-party domination almost impossible. On the contrary, the big parties, Social Democratic Party (SPD) or CDU/CSU, are pushed to build a majority coalition. In this competition, the FDP has been the “pivotal party” in German political life, at least until 2002. Since then, the Greens have challenged the FDP, with the Ecologists allowing the SPD to form a red-green coalition in 1998 and in 2002. Similarly, in 2005 the FDP was not associated with the grand coalition driven by Angela Merkel.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- A Political-Economy Forecast for the 2013 German Elections: Who to Rule with Angela Merkel?
- Creators
- Bruno Jérôme - 1University of Paris II, IRGEI-LARGEPA Paris IIVéronique Jérôme-Speziari - 2University of Paris Sud XI- LARGEPA Paris IIMichael S Lewis-Beck - 3University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- PS, political science & politics, Vol.46(3), pp.479-480
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press; New York, USA
- DOI
- 10.1017/S1049096513000814
- ISSN
- 1049-0965
- eISSN
- 1537-5935
- Number of pages
- 2
- Alternative title
- Spotlight: Forecasting 2013 German Elections; Bruno Jérôme et al.
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 07/2013
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025659002771
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