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A clinical model to predict fibrosis on liver biopsy in paediatric subjects with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
Journal article   Peer reviewed

A clinical model to predict fibrosis on liver biopsy in paediatric subjects with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Sakil Kulkarni, Nadia Naz, Hongjie Gu, Janis M. Stoll, Michael D. Thompson and Brian J. DeBosch
CLINICAL OBESITY, Vol.11(5), e12472
10/2021
DOI: 10.1111/cob.12472
PMCID: PMC8928096
PMID: 34106515

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Abstract

The incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in children is rapidly increasing. Liver fibrosis is a poor prognostic feature that independently predicts cirrhosis. The time that intercedes the first medical encounter and biopsy is rate-limiting to multi-modal treatment. This study aimed to identify non-invasive parameters to predict advanced NAFLD and fibrosis. We conducted a single-center, retrospective 10-year analysis of 640 paediatric patients who underwent liver biopsy. 55 patients, age 3-21 years, had biopsy-confirmed NAFLD. We assessed primary outcomes, NAFLD activity score (NAS) and fibrosis scores, against non-invasive parameters by linear regression, by using binary cutoff values, and by a multivariate logistic regression fibrosis prediction model. NAS correlated with platelets and female sex. Fibrosis scores correlated with platelet counts, gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), and ultrasound shear wave velocity. 25-hydroxy-vitamin D and GGT differentiated mild versus moderate-to-advanced fibrosis. Our multivariate logistical regression model-based scoring system predicted F2 or higher (parameters: BMI%, vitamin D, platelets, GGT), with sensitivity and specificity of 0.83 and 0.95 (area under the ROC curve, 0.944). We identify a clinical model to identify high-risk patients for expedited biopsy. Stratifying patients to abbreviate time-to-biopsy can attenuate delays in aggressive therapy for high-risk patients.
Endocrinology & Metabolism Life Sciences & Biomedicine Science & Technology

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