Journal article
A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data
Journal of macroeconomics, Vol.47, pp.84-102
03/01/2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.08.003
Abstract
Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term versus long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using state-level data from 1982 to 2013, we find strong evidence that the wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex; declines in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure than changes in the unemployment rate above the historical average. We also find that the short-term unemployment rate has a strong relationship with both average and median wage growth, while the long-term unemployment rate appears to only influence median wage growth. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data
- Creators
- Anil Kumar - Federal Reserve Bank of DallasPia M. Orrenius - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of macroeconomics, Vol.47, pp.84-102
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.08.003
- ISSN
- 0164-0704
- eISSN
- 1873-152X
- Number of pages
- 19
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/01/2016
- Academic Unit
- Economics
- Record Identifier
- 9984618644402771
Metrics
1 Record Views