A path-specific SEIR model for use with general latent and infectious time distributions

Aaron T Porter; Jacob J Oleson

doi:10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01809.x

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A path-specific SEIR model for use with general latent and infectious time distributions

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

A path-specific SEIR model for use with general latent and infectious time distributions

Aaron T Porter and Jacob J Oleson

Biometrics, Vol.69(1), pp.101-108

03/2013

DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01809.x

PMCID: PMC3622117

PMID: 23323602

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3622117View

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Abstract

Most current Bayesian SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed (or Recovered)) models either use exponentially distributed latent and infectious periods, allow for a single distribution on the latent and infectious period, or make strong assumptions regarding the quantity of information available regarding time distributions, particularly the time spent in the exposed compartment. Many infectious diseases require a more realistic assumption on the latent and infectious periods. In this article, we provide an alternative model allowing general distributions to be utilized for both the exposed and infectious compartments, while avoiding the need for full latent time data. The alternative formulation is a path-specific SEIR (PS SEIR) model that follows individual paths through the exposed and infectious compartments, thereby removing the need for an exponential assumption on the latent and infectious time distributions. We show how the PS SEIR model is a stochastic analog to a general class of deterministic SEIR models. We then demonstrate the improvement of this PS SEIR model over more common population averaged models via simulation results and perform a new analysis of the Iowa mumps epidemic from 2006.

Mumps - epidemiology

Iowa

Markov Chains

Stochastic Processes

Communicable Diseases - epidemiology

Disease Outbreaks

Computer Simulation

Humans

Bayes Theorem

Models, Statistical

Monte Carlo Method

Details

Title: Subtitle: A path-specific SEIR model for use with general latent and infectious time distributions
Creators: Aaron T Porter - Department of Statistics, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri 65211, USA. porterat@missouri.edu
Jacob J Oleson
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Biometrics, Vol.69(1), pp.101-108
DOI: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2012.01809.x
PMID: 23323602
PMCID: PMC3622117
NLM abbreviation: Biometrics
ISSN: 0006-341X
eISSN: 1541-0420
Publisher: United States
Grant note: T32 GM077973 / NIGMS NIH HHS
Language: English
Date published: 03/2013
Academic Unit: Biostatistics
Record Identifier: 9983997488702771

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