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Accelerating kidney allocation: Simultaneously expiring offers
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Accelerating kidney allocation: Simultaneously expiring offers

Michal A. Mankowski, Martin Kosztowski, Subramanian Raghavan, Jacqueline M. Garonzik-Wang, David Axelrod, Dorry L. Segev and Sommer E. Gentry
American journal of transplantation, Vol.19(11), pp.3071-3078
11/01/2019
DOI: 10.1111/ajt.15396
PMCID: PMC6812592
PMID: 31012528
url
https://doi.org/10.1111/ajt.15396View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

Using nonideal kidneys for transplant quickly might reduce the discard rate of kidney transplants. We studied changing kidney allocation to eliminate sequential offers, instead making offers to multiple centers for all nonlocally allocated kidneys, so that multiple centers must accept or decline within the same 1 hour. If more than 1 center accepted an offer, the kidney would go to the highest-priority accepting candidate. Using 2010 Kidney-Pancreas Simulated Allocation Model-Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients data, we simulated the allocation of 12 933 kidneys, excluding locally allocated and zero-mismatch kidneys. We assumed that each hour of delay decreased the probability of acceptance by 5% and that kidneys would be discarded after 20 hours of offers beyond the local level. We simulated offering kidneys simultaneously to small, medium-size, and large batches of centers. Increasing the batch size increased the percentage of kidneys accepted and shortened allocation times. Going from small to large batches increased the number of kidneys accepted from 10 085 (92%) to 10 802 (98%) for low-Kidney Donor Risk Index kidneys and from 1257 (65%) to 1737 (89%) for high-Kidney Donor Risk Index kidneys. The average number of offers that a center received each week was 10.1 for small batches and 16.8 for large batches. Simultaneously expiring offers might allow faster allocation and decrease the number of discards, while still maintaining an acceptable screening burden.
Life Sciences & Biomedicine Science & Technology Surgery Transplantation

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