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Adaptivity and Stability of Time Series Models
Journal article

Adaptivity and Stability of Time Series Models

Johannes Ledolter
Empirica, Vol.4(2), pp.179-195
01/01/1977
DOI: 10.1007/BF00927034

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Abstract

The effect of interventions on economic variables in the presence of a time dependent noise structure is modelled in this paper. Forecasts from such models are derived and it is disscussed whether forecasts from ARIMA time series models are adaptive with respect to interventions such as changes in the level or outliers. An overall criterion to test the stability of the parameters in ARIMA models is derived and applied to three Austrian macroeconomic sequences. © 1977 Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Austria Europe Forecasting, Econometric Models General Time Series and Spectral Analysis

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