An Illustration of the Protective Value of Epigenetics: Using the Alcohol T Score (ATS) in A Population of Known Smokers

James A Mills; Jeffrey D Long; Robert A Philibert

doi:10.17849/insm-52-3-1-9.2A

Previously we have shown that, in theory, a prediction algorithm that incorporates methylation sensitive digital PCR (MSdPCR) assessments of smoking and drinking could predict mortality. But the potential impact of these findings was speculative because limitations of the generalizability and available data from the study cohort.Background.—Previously we have shown that, in theory, a prediction algorithm that incorporates methylation sensitive digital PCR (MSdPCR) assessments of smoking and drinking could predict mortality. But the potential impact of these findings was speculative because limitations of the generalizability and available data from the study cohort.To directly demonstrate the potential financial impact of using an epigenetic mortality index to assess potential applicants based off actual MSdPCR and survival data from a nationally representative cohort.Objective.—To directly demonstrate the potential financial impact of using an epigenetic mortality index to assess potential applicants based off actual MSdPCR and survival data from a nationally representative cohort.Using actual MSdPCR and survival data from our recent study of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, we modeled the survival and financial impact of a 55-year-old male smoker at the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of Alcohol T Score (ATS) values.Methods.—Using actual MSdPCR and survival data from our recent study of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial, we modeled the survival and financial impact of a 55-year-old male smoker at the 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of Alcohol T Score (ATS) values.The likelihood of survival to maturation of 20 years was 86.2%, 80.8% and 74.4%. Using a simplified financial modeling of a 20-year term policy with $500K face value, insuring a client at the 25th percentile, would result in an average of $38,749 and $85,833 more in average net revenue than insuring the individuals at the 50th and 75th percentile.Results.—The likelihood of survival to maturation of 20 years was 86.2%, 80.8% and 74.4%. Using a simplified financial modeling of a 20-year term policy with $500K face value, insuring a client at the 25th percentile, would result in an average of $38,749 and $85,833 more in average net revenue than insuring the individuals at the 50th and 75th percentile.Epigenetic survival indices can make financially impactful predictions. Real life pilots of this technology in the underwriting space are in order.Conclusions.—Epigenetic survival indices can make financially impactful predictions. Real life pilots of this technology in the underwriting space are in order.

An Illustration of the Protective Value of Epigenetics: Using the Alcohol T Score (ATS) in A Population of Known Smokers

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