Journal article
An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2-Hazard Modeling
Risk analysis, Vol.40(1), pp.117-133
01/01/2020
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13004
PMID: 29694683
Abstract
Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2-Hazard Modeling
- Creators
- Brian Blanton - Renaissance Computing InstituteKendra Dresback - University of OklahomaBrian Colle - Stony Brook UniversityRandy Kolar - University of OklahomaHumberto Vergara - University of OklahomaYang Hong - University of OklahomaNicholas Leonardo - Stony Brook UniversityRachel Davidson - University of DelawareLinda Nozick - Cornell UniversityTricia Wachtendorf - University of Delaware
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Risk analysis, Vol.40(1), pp.117-133
- DOI
- 10.1111/risa.13004
- PMID
- 29694683
- NLM abbreviation
- Risk Anal
- ISSN
- 0272-4332
- eISSN
- 1539-6924
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Number of pages
- 17
- Grant note
- CMMI-1331269 / National Science Foundation; National Science Foundation (NSF)
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/01/2020
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984446405802771
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