Journal article
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol.2(2), pp.107-122
01/15/2021
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6
Abstract
Short-duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth’s climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K−1), while in some regions, increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short-duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales, and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
- Creators
- Hayley J Fowler - Newcastle UniversityGeert Lenderink - Royal Netherlands Meteorological InstituteAndreas F Prein - NSF National Center for Atmospheric ResearchSeth Westra - The University of AdelaideRichard P Allan - University of ReadingNikolina Ban - Universität InnsbruckRenaud Barbero - National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment, RECOVER, Aix-en-Provence, FrancePeter Berg - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological InstituteStephen Blenkinsop - Newcastle UniversityHong X Do - University of MichiganSelma Guerreiro - Newcastle UniversityJan O Haerter - University of CopenhagenElizabeth J Kendon - Met OfficeElizabeth Lewis - Newcastle UniversityChristoph Schaer - ETH ZurichAshish Sharma - University of New South WalesGabriele Villarini - University of IowaConrad Wasko - The University of MelbourneXuebin Zhang - Environment and Climate Change Canada
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol.2(2), pp.107-122
- DOI
- 10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6
- ISSN
- 2662-138X
- eISSN
- 2662-138X
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/15/2021
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984197234902771
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