Journal article
Assessing the Impact of Radar-Rainfall Uncertainty on Streamflow Simulation
Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.26(2), pp.169-184
02/2025
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-24-0047.1
Abstract
Hydrological models and quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) are critical elements of flood forecasting systems. Both are subject to considerable uncertainties. Quantifying their relative contribution to the forecasted streamflow and flood uncertainty has remained challenging. Past work documented in the literature focused on one of these elements separately from the other. With this in mind, we present a systematic approach to assess the impact of QPE uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Our approach explores the operational Iowa Flood Center (IFC) hydrological model performance after altering two radar-based QPE products. We ran the Hillslope Link Model (HLM) for Iowa between 2015 and 2020, altering the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) and the specific attenuation-based (IFCA) IFC radar-derived product with a multiplicative error term. We assessed the forecasting system performance at 112 USGS streamflow gauges using the altered QPE products. Our results suggest that addressing rainfall uncertainty has the potential for much-improved flood forecasting spatially and seasonally. We identified spatial patterns linking prediction improvements to the radar's location and the magnitude of rainfall. Also, we observed seasonal trends suggesting underestimations during the cold season (October to April). The patterns for different radar products are generally similar but also show some differences, implying that the QPE algorithm plays a role. This study's results are a step towards separating modeling and QPE uncertainties. Future work involving larger areas and different hydrological and error models is essential to improve our understanding of the impact of QPE uncertainty.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Assessing the Impact of Radar-Rainfall Uncertainty on Streamflow Simulation
- Creators
- Nicolás Velásquez - Florida Institute of TechnologyWitold F. Krajewski - University of IowaBong-Chul Seo - Missouri University of Science and Technology
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of hydrometeorology, Vol.26(2), pp.169-184
- Publisher
- AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
- DOI
- 10.1175/JHM-D-24-0047.1
- ISSN
- 1525-755X
- eISSN
- 1525-7541
- Grant note
- Iowa Flood CenterU.S. Department of Transportation's University Transportation Centers Program (USDOT UTC Grant): 69A3551747107 Iowa Highway Research BoardIowa Department of Transportation: TR-699 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
This work was completed with partial support from the Iowa Flood Center, the Mid-America Transportation Center via a grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation's University Transportation Centers Program (USDOT UTC Grant for MATC: 69A3551747107) , the Iowa Highway Research Board, and the Iowa Depart-ment of Transportation (TR-699) . Partial funding for this project was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and awarded to the Cooper-ative Institute for Research on Hydrology (CIROH) through
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 01/07/2025
- Date published
- 02/2025
- Academic Unit
- IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering; Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984772278502771
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