Journal article
Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.20(8), pp.3325-3342
2016
DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3325-2016
Abstract
Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production
- Creators
- Awoke D TeshagerPhilip W GassmanJustin T SchoofSilvia Secchi
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol.20(8), pp.3325-3342
- DOI
- 10.5194/hess-20-3325-2016
- ISSN
- 1027-5606
- eISSN
- 1607-7938
- Grant note
- DOI: 10.13039/100000001, name: National Science Foundation, award: 1009925
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 2016
- Academic Unit
- Public Policy Center (Archive); Geographical and Sustainability Sciences; University College Courses
- Record Identifier
- 9983917796402771
Metrics
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