Bayesian compartmental models and associated reproductive numbers for an infection with multiple transmission modes

Marie V Ozanne; Grant D Brown; Angela J Toepp; Breanna M Scorza; Jacob J Oleson; Mary E Wilson; Christine A Petersen

doi:10.1111/biom.13192

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Bayesian compartmental models and associated reproductive numbers for an infection with multiple transmission modes

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Bayesian compartmental models and associated reproductive numbers for an infection with multiple transmission modes

Marie V Ozanne, Grant D Brown, Angela J Toepp, Breanna M Scorza, Jacob J Oleson, Mary E Wilson and Christine A Petersen

Biometrics, Vol.76(3), pp.711-721

09/2020

DOI: 10.1111/biom.13192

PMCID: PMC7673222

PMID: 31785149

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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/7673222View

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Abstract

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) is a serious neglected tropical disease that is endemic in 98 countries. ZVL is primarily transmitted via a sand fly vector. In the United States, it is enzootic in some canine populations; it is transmitted from infectious mother to pup transplacentally, and vector-borne transmission is absent. This absence affords a unique opportunity to study (1) vertical transmission dynamics in dogs and (2) the importance of vertical transmission in maintaining an infectious reservoir in the presence of a vector. In this paper, we present Bayesian compartmental models and reproductive number formulations to examine (1) and (2), providing a mechanism to plan and evaluate interventions in regions where both transmission modes are present. First, we propose an individual-level susceptible, infectious, removed (SIR) model to study the effect of maternal infection status during pregnancy on pup infection progression. We provide evidence that pups born to diagnostically positive mothers during pregnancy are more likely to become diagnostically positive both earlier in life, and at some point during their lifetime, than those born to diagnostically negative mothers. Second, we propose a population-level SIR model to study the impact of a vertically maintained reservoir on propagating infection in a naive canine population through emergent vector transmission using simulation studies. We also present reproductive numbers to quantify contributions of vertically infected and vector-infected dogs to maintaining infection in the population. We show that a vertically maintained canine reservoir can propagate infection in a theoretical naive population in the presence of a vector.

vertical transmission

empirically adjusted reproductive number

SIR

visceral leishmaniasis

Details

Title: Subtitle: Bayesian compartmental models and associated reproductive numbers for an infection with multiple transmission modes
Creators: Marie V Ozanne - Mount Holyoke College
Grant D Brown - University of Iowa
Angela J Toepp - University of Iowa
Breanna M Scorza - University of Iowa
Jacob J Oleson - University of Iowa
Mary E Wilson - Iowa City VA Medical Center
Christine A Petersen - University of Iowa
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Biometrics, Vol.76(3), pp.711-721
DOI: 10.1111/biom.13192
PMID: 31785149
PMCID: PMC7673222
NLM abbreviation: Biometrics
ISSN: 0006-341X
eISSN: 1541-0420
Grant note: T32 AI007260 / NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI139267 / NIAID NIH HHS R01 TW010500 / FIC NIH HHS
Language: English
Date published: 09/2020
Academic Unit: Microbiology and Immunology; Infectious Diseases; International Programs; Epidemiology; Biostatistics; Internal Medicine
Record Identifier: 9984186626902771

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