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Bayesian inference for discretely sampled Markov processes with closed-form likelihood expansions
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Bayesian inference for discretely sampled Markov processes with closed-form likelihood expansions

Osnat Stramer, Matthew Bognar and Paul Schneider
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Vol.8(4), pp.450-480
2009
DOI: 10.1093/jjfinec/nbp027

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Abstract

This article proposes a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for estimation of a wide class of multidimensional jump-diffusion models. Our approach is based on the closed-form (CF) likelihood approximations of Aït-Sahalia (2002, 2008). The CF likelihood approximation does not integrate to 1; it is very close to 1 when in the center of the distribution but can differ markedly from 1 when far in the tails. We propose an MCMC algorithm that addresses the problems that arise when the CF approximation is applied in a Bayesian context. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated in a simulation study of the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross and Heston models and is applied to two well-known datasets.

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