Journal article
Bayesian multivariate longitudinal model for immune responses to Leishmania: A tick-borne co-infection study
Statistics in medicine, Vol.42(21), pp.3860-3876
06/23/2023
DOI: 10.1002/sim.9837
PMCID: PMC11123579
PMID: 37350148
Appears in UI Libraries Support Open Access
Abstract
While many Bayesian state-space models for infectious disease processes focus on population infection dynamics (eg, compartmental models), in this work we examine the evolution of infection processes and the complexities of the immune responses within the host using these techniques. We present a joint Bayesian state-space model to better understand how the immune system contributes to the control of Leishmania infantum infections over the disease course. We use longitudinal molecular diagnostic and clinical data of a cohort of dogs to describe population progression rates and present evidence for important drivers of clinical disease. Among these results, we find evidence for the importance of co-infection in disease progression. We also show that as dogs progress through the infection, parasite load is influenced by their age, ectoparasiticide treatment status, and serology. Furthermore, we present evidence that pathogen load information from an earlier point in time influences its future value and that the size of this effect varies depending on the clinical stage of the dog. In addition to characterizing the processes driving disease progression, we predict individual and aggregate patterns of Canine Leishmaniasis progression. Both our findings and the application to individual-level predictions are of direct clinical relevance, presenting possible opportunities for application in veterinary practice and motivating lines of additional investigation to better understand and predict disease progression. Finally, as an important zoonotic human pathogen, these results may support future efforts to prevent and treat human Leishmaniosis.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Bayesian multivariate longitudinal model for immune responses to Leishmania: A tick-borne co-infection study
- Creators
- Felix M Pabon-Rodriguez - University of IowaGrant D Brown - University of IowaBreanna M Scorza - University of IowaChristine A Petersen - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Statistics in medicine, Vol.42(21), pp.3860-3876
- DOI
- 10.1002/sim.9837
- PMID
- 37350148
- PMCID
- PMC11123579
- NLM abbreviation
- Stat Med
- eISSN
- 1097-0258
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Grant note
- MFHA18441000 / National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI139267-03 / National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases T32AI007260 / National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 06/23/2023
- Academic Unit
- Epidemiology; Biostatistics; Internal Medicine
- Record Identifier
- 9984438859502771
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