Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People's Preparations for It

Jillian O' Rourke Stuart; Paul D Windschitl; Andrew R Smith; Aaron M Scherer

doi:10.1002/bdm.1918

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Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People's Preparations for It

Journal article

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Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People's Preparations for It

Jillian O' Rourke Stuart, Paul D Windschitl, Andrew R Smith and Aaron M Scherer

Journal of behavioral decision making, Vol.30(1), pp.54-69

01/2017

DOI: 10.1002/bdm.1918

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Abstract

Past research on the desirability bias and on bracing for bad news has focused on the potential influence of outcome desirability on people's stated expectations. The present studies examined its influence on behavior—that is, what is done in anticipation of, or preparation for, an uncertain outcome. In five studies, the desirability of possible outcomes for an event, which was uncertain and uncontrollable by the participant, was manipulated, and preparation behavior was measured. Study 1 used a hypothetical‐events paradigm. Studies 2 and 3 involved a computer activity in which behavior was tracked on a trial‐by‐trial basis. In Studies 4 and 5, the uncertain event was the ending of a videotaped basketball game. Rather than exhibiting bracing or a reluctance to tempt fate, participants tended to behave in a manner consistent with an optimistic desirability bias. In a subset of studies, predictions and likelihood judgments were also solicited; the differential effects of outcome desirability on these measures are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

preparedness

desirability bias

readiness

wishful thinking

decision making

optimism bias

risk

Details

Title: Subtitle: Behaving Optimistically: How the (Un)Desirability of an Outcome Can Bias People's Preparations for It
Creators: Jillian O' Rourke Stuart - University of Iowa
Paul D Windschitl - University of Iowa
Andrew R Smith - Appalachian State University
Aaron M Scherer - University of Michigan
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of behavioral decision making, Vol.30(1), pp.54-69
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.1918
ISSN: 0894-3257
eISSN: 1099-0771
Number of pages: 16
Grant note: National Science Foundation (SES 07‐20349; SES 09‐61252)
Language: English
Date published: 01/2017
Academic Unit: Psychological and Brain Sciences; General Internal Medicine; Internal Medicine
Record Identifier: 9984094707502771

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