Journal article
Beyond heuristics and biases: A contingency model of judgemental forecasting
Journal of forecasting, Vol.5(3), pp.143-157
07/1986
DOI: 10.1002/for.3980050302
Abstract
The conflicting viewpoints about the quality of judgemental forecasts are examined and a model is proposed that attempts to resolve the conflict. The model sees forecasts as contingent upon the repertory of forecasting strategies that the forecaster brings to the forecasting task, the strategy that he or she selects as a function of the characteristics of the task, and the rigour with which he or she applies the strategy as a function of the motivating characteristics of the environment in which the task is encountered. The implications of differences in subjects' and experimenters' assumptions about which strategies are appropriate in experimental studies are examined, as are the implications of the differences between the motivating aspects of experimental and applied settings on both performance and on the generatizability of the results of experiments to applied judgemental forecasting.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Beyond heuristics and biases: A contingency model of judgemental forecasting
- Creators
- Lee Roy Beach - University of WashingtonValerie E. Barnes - BattelleJay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski - University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, 52242, U.S.A
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of forecasting, Vol.5(3), pp.143-157
- DOI
- 10.1002/for.3980050302
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
- eISSN
- 1099-131X
- Publisher
- John Wiley & Sons, Ltd; W SUSSEX
- Number of pages
- 15
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 07/1986
- Academic Unit
- Management and Entrepreneurship
- Record Identifier
- 9984962890702771
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