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Challenges in Forecasting Antimicrobial Resistance
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Challenges in Forecasting Antimicrobial Resistance

Pei Sen, Seth Blumberg, Jaime Cascante Vega, Robin Tal, Yue Zhang, Richard Medford, Bijaya Adhikari, Jeffrey Shaman and CDC MIND-Healthcare Program
Emerging infectious diseases, Vol.29(4), pp.679-685
04/01/2023
DOI: 10.3201/eid2904.221552
PMCID: PMC10045679
PMID: 36958029
url
https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2904.221552View
Published (Version of record) Open Access

Abstract

Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat to human health. Since the 2000s, computational tools for predicting infectious diseases have been greatly advanced; however, efforts to develop real-time forecasting models for antimicrobial-resistant organisms (AMROs) have been absent. In this perspective, we discuss the utility of AMRO forecasting at different scales, highlight the challenges in this field, and suggest future research priorities. We also discuss challenges in scientific understanding, access to high-quality data, model calibration, and implementation and evaluation of forecasting models. We further highlight the need to initiate research on AMRO forecasting using currently available data and resources to galvanize the research community and address initial practical questions.
Antimicrobial Agents Drug Resistance Infectious Diseases Public Health Viral Infections Calibration Forecasting Health facilities Hospitals Medical personnel Pathogens Streptococcus infections

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