Journal article
Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
Nature communications, Vol.12(1), pp.4054-4054
12/01/2021
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5
PMCID: PMC8277888
PMID: 34257285
Abstract
Atlantic hurricanes are a major hazard to life and property, and a topic of intense scientific interest. Historical changes in observing practices limit the utility of century-scale records of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. To evaluate past changes in frequency, we have here developed a homogenization method for Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency over 1851–2019. We find that
recorded
century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.
How tropical cyclones have varied in intensity and frequency in the past is not well known as longer records are rare. Here, the authors show that changes in observing practices explain the recorded century scale increase in Atlantic major hurricane frequency, and recent increases are not part of a century-scale trend.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century
- Creators
- Gabriel A Vecchi - Princeton UniversityChristopher Landsea - National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationWei Zhang - Utah State UniversityGabriele Villarini - University of IowaThomas Knutson - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Nature communications, Vol.12(1), pp.4054-4054
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5
- PMID
- 34257285
- PMCID
- PMC8277888
- NLM abbreviation
- Nat Commun
- ISSN
- 2041-1723
- eISSN
- 2041-1723
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group UK
- Grant note
- ; EAR‐1840742 / ;
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 12/01/2021
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984197259102771
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