Changing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States

Gabriele Villarini; James A Smith; Gabriel A Vecchi

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00043.1

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Changing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Changing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States

Gabriele Villarini, James A Smith and Gabriel A Vecchi

Journal of climate, Vol.26(1), pp.351-357

01/01/2013

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00043.1

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Abstract

Abstract Records of daily rainfall accumulations from 447 rain gauge stations over the central United States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi) are used to assess past changes in the frequency of heavy rainfall. Each station has a record of at least 50 yr, and the data cover most of the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Analyses are performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach, and, for each station, the 95th percentile is used as the threshold. Because of the count nature of the data and to account for both abrupt and slowly varying changes in the heavy rainfall distribution, a segmented regression is used to detect changepoints at unknown points in time. The presence of trends is assessed by means of a Poisson regression model to examine whether the rate of occurrence parameter is a linear function of time (by means of a logarithmic link function). The results point to increasing trends in heavy rainfall over the northern part of the study domain. Examination of the surface temperature record suggests that these increasing trends occur over the area with the largest increasing trends in temperature and, consequently, with an increase in atmospheric water vapor.

Details

Title: Subtitle: Changing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States
Creators: Gabriele Villarini - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, and Willis Research Network, London, United Kingdom
James A Smith - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Gabriel A Vecchi - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of climate, Vol.26(1), pp.351-357
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00043.1
ISSN: 0894-8755
eISSN: 1520-0442
Language: English
Date published: 01/01/2013
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9983992044102771

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