Journal article
Choosing the dependent variable: Sarkozy's forecasting lesson
French politics, Vol.10(4), pp.364-368
12/2012
DOI: 10.1057/fp.2012.15
Abstract
This article revisits our forecast of the 2012 French presidential election. Although our forecast was generally accurate in seeing the return of the left to the presidency, its point estimate error proved to be large (9.2 points). This article suggests that this forecast error may come from a wrong choice of dependent variable. New empirical tests of our French ‘proxy model’ of forecasting indicate that the dependent variable to use should continue to be total left vote share, but measured on the second ballot rather than the first.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Choosing the dependent variable: Sarkozy's forecasting lesson
- Creators
- Éric BélangerMichael S Lewis-BeckRichard Nadeau
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- French politics, Vol.10(4), pp.364-368
- DOI
- 10.1057/fp.2012.15
- ISSN
- 1476-3419
- eISSN
- 1476-3427
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 12/2012
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025548702771
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