Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Barbara Entwisle; Nathalie E Williams; Ashton M Verdery; Ronald R Rindfuss; Stephen J Walsh; George P Malanson; Peter J Mucha; Brian G Frizzelle; Philip M McDaniel; Xiaozheng Yao; Benjamin W Heumann; Pramote Prasartkul; Yothin Sawangdee; Aree Jampaklay

doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

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Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Barbara Entwisle, Nathalie E Williams, Ashton M Verdery, Ronald R Rindfuss, Stephen J Walsh, George P Malanson, Peter J Mucha, Brian G Frizzelle, Philip M McDaniel, Xiaozheng Yao, …

Population and environment, Vol.38(1), pp.47-71

09/2016

DOI: 10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

PMCID: PMC5004973

PMID: 27594725

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http://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0254-yView

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Abstract

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, ‘normal’ scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Weather

Climate change

Thailand

Migration

Agent-based model

Details

Title: Subtitle: Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach
Creators: Barbara Entwisle - Virginia Tech University, USA
Nathalie E Williams - Virginia Tech University, USA
Ashton M Verdery - Virginia Tech University, USA
Ronald R Rindfuss - Virginia Tech University, USA
Stephen J Walsh - Virginia Tech University, USA
George P Malanson - Virginia Tech University, USA
Peter J Mucha - Virginia Tech University, USA
Brian G Frizzelle - Virginia Tech University, USA
Philip M McDaniel - Virginia Tech University, USA
Xiaozheng Yao - Virginia Tech University, USA
Benjamin W Heumann - Virginia Tech University, USA
Pramote Prasartkul - Virginia Tech University, USA
Yothin Sawangdee - Virginia Tech University, USA
Aree Jampaklay - Virginia Tech University, USA
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Population and environment, Vol.38(1), pp.47-71
DOI: 10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y
PMID: 27594725
PMCID: PMC5004973
NLM abbreviation: Popul Environ
ISSN: 0199-0039
eISSN: 1573-7810
Grant note: DOI: 10.13039/100000071, name: National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, award: R00HD067587
Language: English
Date published: 09/2016
Academic Unit: Geographical and Sustainability Sciences
Record Identifier: 9983816700102771

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