Journal article
Climate variation drives dengue dynamics
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.114(1), pp.113-118
01/03/2017
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1618558114
PMCID: PMC5224358
PMID: 27940911
Abstract
Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Climate variation drives dengue dynamics
- Creators
- Lei Xu - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionLeif C Stige - University of OsloKung-Sik Chan - University of IowaJie Zhou - Chinese Academy of SciencesJun Yang - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionShaowei Sang - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionMing Wang - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionZhicong Yang - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionZiqiang Yan - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionTong Jiang - China Meteorological AdministrationLiang Lu - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionYujuan Yue - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionXiaobo Liu - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionHualiang Lin - Centers for Disease Control and PreventionJianguo Xu - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionQiyong Liu - Chinese Center For Disease Control and PreventionNils Chr Stenseth - University of Oslo
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.114(1), pp.113-118
- DOI
- 10.1073/pnas.1618558114
- PMID
- 27940911
- PMCID
- PMC5224358
- NLM abbreviation
- Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
- ISSN
- 0027-8424
- eISSN
- 1091-6490
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/03/2017
- Academic Unit
- Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
- Record Identifier
- 9984257610002771
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