Communication of Scientific Uncertainty about a Novel Pandemic Health Threat: Ambiguity Aversion and Its Mechanisms

Paul K J Han; Brian J Zikmund-Fisher; Christine W Duarte; Megan Knaus; Adam Black; Aaron M Scherer; Angela Fagerlin

doi:10.1080/10810730.2018.1461961

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Communication of Scientific Uncertainty about a Novel Pandemic Health Threat: Ambiguity Aversion and Its Mechanisms

Journal article

Peer reviewed

Communication of Scientific Uncertainty about a Novel Pandemic Health Threat: Ambiguity Aversion and Its Mechanisms

Paul K J Han, Brian J Zikmund-Fisher, Christine W Duarte, Megan Knaus, Adam Black, Aaron M Scherer and Angela Fagerlin

Journal of health communication, Vol.23(5), pp.435-444

2018

DOI: 10.1080/10810730.2018.1461961

PMCID: PMC6029253

PMID: 29648962

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Abstract

Communicating scientific uncertainty about public health threats is ethically desirable but challenging due to its tendency to promote avoidance of choice options with unknown probabilities-a phenomenon known as "ambiguity aversion." This study examined this phenomenon's potential magnitude, its responses to different communication strategies, and its mechanisms. In a factorial experiment, 2701 adult laypersons in Spain read one of three versions of a hypothetical newspaper article describing a pandemic vaccine-preventable disease (VPD), but varying in scientific uncertainty about VPD risk and vaccine effectiveness: No-Uncertainty, Uncertainty, and Normalized-Uncertainty (emphasizing its expected nature). Vaccination intentions were lower for the Uncertainty and Normalized-Uncertainty groups compared to the No-Uncertainty group, consistent with ambiguity aversion; Uncertainty and Normalized-Uncertainty groups did not differ. Ambiguity-averse responses were moderated by health literacy and mediated by perceptions of vaccine effectiveness, VPD likelihood, and VPD severity. Communicating scientific uncertainty about public health threats warrants caution and further research to elucidate its outcomes, mechanisms, and management.

Vaccination - psychology

Uncertainty

Pandemics

Humans

Middle Aged

Health Literacy

Influenza, Human - epidemiology

Male

Risk

Random Allocation

Vaccines - therapeutic use

Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice

Spain

Young Adult

Analysis of Variance

Influenza A Virus, H7N3 Subtype

Adolescent

Adult

Female

Surveys and Questionnaires

Aged

Influenza, Human - psychology

Influenza, Human - prevention & control

Communication

Details

Title: Subtitle: Communication of Scientific Uncertainty about a Novel Pandemic Health Threat: Ambiguity Aversion and Its Mechanisms
Creators: Paul K J Han - a Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation , Maine Medical Center Research Institute , Portland , ME , USA
Brian J Zikmund-Fisher - b Department of Health Behavior and Health Education , University of Michigan School of Public Health , Ann Arbor , MI , USA
Christine W Duarte - a Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation , Maine Medical Center Research Institute , Portland , ME , USA
Megan Knaus - b Department of Health Behavior and Health Education , University of Michigan School of Public Health , Ann Arbor , MI , USA
Adam Black - a Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation , Maine Medical Center Research Institute , Portland , ME , USA
Aaron M Scherer - c Division of General Internal Medicine , University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine , Iowa City , IA , USA
Angela Fagerlin - d Department of Population Health Sciences , University of Utah and Salt Lake City VA Center for Informatics Decision Enhancement and Surveillance , Salt Lake City , UT , USA
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of health communication, Vol.23(5), pp.435-444
DOI: 10.1080/10810730.2018.1461961
PMID: 29648962
PMCID: PMC6029253
NLM abbreviation: J Health Commun
ISSN: 1081-0730
eISSN: 1087-0415
Grant note: P20 GM121301 / NIGMS NIH HHS U54 GM115516 / NIGMS NIH HHS
Language: English
Date published: 2018
Academic Unit: General Internal Medicine; Internal Medicine
Record Identifier: 9984094566302771

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