Journal article
Cure models, survival probabilities, and solid organ transplantation for patients with colorectal cancer
American journal of transplantation, Vol.25(3), pp.545-555
03/2025
DOI: 10.1016/j.ajt.2024.08.018
PMCID: PMC11842210
PMID: 39182612
Abstract
A previous cancer diagnosis can preclude patients from consideration for solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve candidate selection. We fitted statistical cure models and estimated five-year cancer-specific survival (5yCSS) for colorectal cancer patients in the United States using registry data. The median cure probability at cancer diagnosis for patients in the general population was 0.67. Among 956 colorectal cancer patients who underwent solid organ transplantation, the median time since diagnosis was 6.3 years and the median 5yCSS at transplantation was 0.96. Patients with a 5yCSS below 0.90 had increased posttransplant cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.31, 95% confidence interval 1.52-7.21). Compared with recently published guidelines, our models suggested shorter wait times for some groups of colorectal cancer patients (e.g., stage IIA cancers) and longer wait times for others (stages IIB, IIIB, IIIC, IV). In conclusion, colorectal cancer patients undergoing solid organ transplantation had excellent prognoses, reflecting selection incorporating existing guidelines and clinical judgement. Nonetheless, 5yCSS probabilities estimated from cure models offer additional prognostic information for patients considered for transplantation and identify situations where current guidelines might be revised. We developed a web-based tool for clinicians to calculate 5yCSS probabilities for use in transplant evaluation for individual colorectal cancer patients (https://dceg.cancer.gov/tools/risk-assessment/calculator-of-colorectal-cancer-survival-probability).
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Cure models, survival probabilities, and solid organ transplantation for patients with colorectal cancer
- Creators
- Eric A. Engels - Division of Cancer Epidemiology and GeneticsSoutrik Mandal - Division of Cancer Epidemiology and GeneticsDouglas A. Corley - Kaiser PermanenteChristopher D. Blosser - University of WashingtonAllyson Hart - Hennepin Healthcare Research InstituteCharles F. Lynch - University of IowaBaozhen Qiao - New York State Department of HealthKaren S. Pawlish - New Jersey Department of HealthGregory Haber - National Institute of Standards and TechnologyKelly J. Yu - Division of Cancer Epidemiology and GeneticsRuth M. Pfeiffer - Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- American journal of transplantation, Vol.25(3), pp.545-555
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ajt.2024.08.018
- PMID
- 39182612
- PMCID
- PMC11842210
- NLM abbreviation
- Am J Transplant
- ISSN
- 1600-6135
- eISSN
- 1600-6143
- Publisher
- Elsevier Inc
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 08/23/2024
- Date published
- 03/2025
- Academic Unit
- Epidemiology
- Record Identifier
- 9984700411402771
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