Developing a Spatial Regression Model Framework for Insured Flood Losses in Houston

Lily L. Kraft; Gabriele Villarini; Jeffrey Czajkowski; Dale Zimmerman; Renato S. Amorim

doi:10.1061/AOMJAH.AOENG-0044

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Developing a Spatial Regression Model Framework for Insured Flood Losses in Houston

Journal article

Open access

Developing a Spatial Regression Model Framework for Insured Flood Losses in Houston

Lily L. Kraft, Gabriele Villarini, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Dale Zimmerman and Renato S. Amorim

ASCE OPEN: Multidisciplinary Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol.3(1), 04025002

02/24/2025

DOI: 10.1061/AOMJAH.AOENG-0044

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Abstract

Abstract Events such as Hurricane Harvey in 2017, which struck Houston resulted in billions of dollars in reported flood insurance claims through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Currently, there is limited research investigating how hydrologic and socioeconomic drivers influence the location and magnitude of NFIP claims. Here, we present a statistical modeling framework of NFIP claims and claim amounts at the census tract level for 13 flood events affecting Houston from 2010 to 2019. We determine a relationship between insured losses and local hydrologic and socioeconomic variables and account for spatial dependency via eigenvector spatial filtering. We observed that communities with high policy densities within high-risk flood zones incurred the most insured losses, as would be expected, while census tracts with predominantly White, non-Hispanic, and Hispanic populations are linked to higher claim amounts. We additionally found that communities with a lower median income and larger elderly population are linked to more flood losses. Our modeling framework allows the evaluation of flood loss projections due to climate change and changes in policy density.

Technical Papers

Details

Title: Subtitle: Developing a Spatial Regression Model Framework for Insured Flood Losses in Houston
Creators: Lily L. Kraft - University of Iowa
Gabriele Villarini - Princeton University
Jeffrey Czajkowski - National Association of Insurance Commissioners Center for Insurance Policy and Research, , Kansas City, MO 64106
Dale Zimmerman - University of Iowa
Renato S. Amorim - Princeton University
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: ASCE OPEN: Multidisciplinary Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol.3(1), 04025002
DOI: 10.1061/AOMJAH.AOENG-0044
eISSN: 2995-4266
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Language: English
Date published: 02/24/2025
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Civil and Environmental Engineering; Biostatistics; IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984790997602771

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