Journal article
Development and Reporting of Prediction Models: Guidance for Authors From Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals
Critical care medicine, Vol.48(5), pp.623-633
05/2020
DOI: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000004246
PMCID: PMC7161722
PMID: 32141923
Abstract
Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of "modifiable risk factors", measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Development and Reporting of Prediction Models: Guidance for Authors From Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals
- Creators
- Daniel E Leisman - Icahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiMichael O Harhay - University of PennsylvaniaDavid J Lederer - Columbia UniversityMichael Abramson - Monash UniversityAlex A Adjei - Department of Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester MNJan Bakker - New York UniversityZuhair K Ballas - University of IowaEsther Barreiro - Hospital Del MarScott C Bell - Prince Charles HospitalRinaldo Bellomo - The University of MelbourneJonathan A Bernstein - University of CincinnatiRichard D Branson - University of CincinnatiVito Brusasco - University of GenoaJames D Chalmers - University of DundeeSudhansu Chokroverty - John F. Kennedy Medical CenterGiuseppe Citerio - University of Milano-BicoccaNancy A Collop - Emory UniversityColin R Cooke - University of MichiganJames D Crapo - National Jewish HealthGavin Donaldson - Imperial College LondonDominic A Fitzgerald - Children's Hospital at WestmeadEmma Grainger - The Lancet, London, United Kingdom.Lauren Hale - Stony Brook UniversityFelix J Herth - Heidelberg UniversityPatrick M Kochanek - University of PittsburghGuy Marks - The University of SydneyJ Randall Moorman - University of VirginiaDavid E Ost - The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer CenterMichael Schatz - Kaiser PermanenteAziz Sheikh - University of EdinburghAlan R Smyth - University of NottinghamIain Stewart - University of NottinghamPaul W Stewart - University of North Carolina at Chapel HillErik R Swenson - University of WashingtonRonald Szymusiak - David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLAJean-Louis Teboul - Bicêtre HospitalJean-Louis Vincent - Université Libre de BruxellesJadwiga A Wedzicha - Imperial College LondonDavid M Maslove - Queen's University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Critical care medicine, Vol.48(5), pp.623-633
- DOI
- 10.1097/CCM.0000000000004246
- PMID
- 32141923
- PMCID
- PMC7161722
- NLM abbreviation
- Crit Care Med
- ISSN
- 0090-3493
- eISSN
- 1530-0293
- Grant note
- G1001365 / Medical Research Council K99 HL141678 / NHLBI NIH HHS G0800570 / Medical Research Council R00 HL141678 / NHLBI NIH HHS G1001372 / Medical Research Council
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 05/2020
- Academic Unit
- Immunology; Internal Medicine
- Record Identifier
- 9984359593302771
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