Development of a coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework for rainfall-induced landslides prediction

Xiaogang He; Yang Hong; Humberto Vergara; Ke Zhang; Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter; Jonathan J. Gourley; Yu Zhang; Gang Qiao; Chun Liu

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.016

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Development of a coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework for rainfall-induced landslides prediction

Journal article

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Development of a coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework for rainfall-induced landslides prediction

Xiaogang He, Yang Hong, Humberto Vergara, Ke Zhang, Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter, Jonathan J. Gourley, Yu Zhang, Gang Qiao and Chun Liu

Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), Vol.543, pp.395-405

12/01/2016

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.016

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Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new coupled hydrological-geotechnical model called CRESLIDE (Coupled Routing and Excess Storage and SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium), which can alleviate the chronic flaws of landslides simulation and prediction. CRESLIDE is designed to improve the original landslides model (SLIDE) through the coupling of hydrological model (CREST) and to deliver an integrated system for predicting storm-triggered landslides. This coupled system is implemented and evaluated in Macon County, North Carolina, where Hurricane Ivan triggered widespread landslides in September 2004 during the hurricane season. Model simulations from CRESLIDE show its reliability to predict landslides occurrence (location and timing). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrates that the coupled system (CRESLIDE) has higher specificity (94.10%) and higher sensitivity (11.36%) compared to the original SLIDE model (specificity = 93.32%, sensitivity = 10.23%) and a well-known landslide model (TRIGRS, whose sensitivity is 6.98%). This improved predictive performance demonstrates the advantage of coupling hydrological and geotechnical models with a more realistic representation of infiltration. It warrants a better depiction of the spatial and temporal dependence of hydrological and geotechnical processes in the course of the rainfall-triggered landslide event. This kind of model integration is useful for landslides prediction and early warning. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering

Engineering, Civil

Geology

Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Physical Sciences

Science & Technology

Technology

Water Resources

Details

Title: Subtitle: Development of a coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework for rainfall-induced landslides prediction
Creators: Xiaogang He - University of Oklahoma
Yang Hong - University of Oklahoma
Humberto Vergara - University of Oklahoma
Ke Zhang - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter - NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
Jonathan J. Gourley - NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory
Yu Zhang - Princeton University
Gang Qiao - Tongji University
Chun Liu - Tongji University
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam), Vol.543, pp.395-405
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.016
ISSN: 0022-1694
eISSN: 1879-2707
Publisher: Elsevier
Number of pages: 11
Grant note: NA14OAR4830100 / NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma, U.S. Department of Commerce; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA NNH10ZDA001N-ESI / NASA Surface and Interior program
Language: English
Date published: 12/01/2016
Academic Unit: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984446429102771

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