Disentangling the Sources of Uncertainties in the Projection of Flood Risk Across the Central United States (Iowa)

Alexander Michalek; Gabriele Villarini; Taereem Kim; Felipe Quintero; Witold Krajewski

doi:10.1029/2023GL105852

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Disentangling the Sources of Uncertainties in the Projection of Flood Risk Across the Central United States (Iowa)

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Disentangling the Sources of Uncertainties in the Projection of Flood Risk Across the Central United States (Iowa)

Alexander Michalek, Gabriele Villarini, Taereem Kim, Felipe Quintero and Witold Krajewski

Geophysical research letters, Vol.50(22), e2023GL105852

11/28/2023

DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105852

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Abstract

We explore the projected changes in flood impacts across Iowa (central United States) and the associated uncertainties by forcing a hydrologic model with downscaled global climate model outputs and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Our results point to projected increasing magnitude and variability in flooding across the state, especially for high‐emission scenarios. Next, we partition the flood impacts' projections into: (a) the response of the global climate models to anthropogenic forcing, (b) scenario uncertainty due to emissions, and (c) internal climate variability. We find scenario uncertainty plays a small role, while climate model uncertainty and internal climate variability dominate the flood impacts' projections, with the contribution of model uncertainty increasing toward the end of this century. Insights from our work can be utilized by stakeholders to understand the current limitations of flood impact projections and provide suggestions about where modelers should focus efforts to reduce uncertainty.

Hydrology

uncertainty

projections

UIOWA OA Agreement

Details

Title: Subtitle: Disentangling the Sources of Uncertainties in the Projection of Flood Risk Across the Central United States (Iowa)
Creators: Alexander Michalek - University of Iowa, IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
Gabriele Villarini - University of Iowa, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Taereem Kim - Princeton University
Felipe Quintero - University of Iowa, IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
Witold Krajewski - University of Iowa, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Geophysical research letters, Vol.50(22), e2023GL105852
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105852
ISSN: 0094-8276
eISSN: 1944-8007
Publisher: Wiley
Grant note: Iowa Department of Transportation. Grant Number: 20-SPR2-002 Iowa Flood Center IIHR—Hydroscience & Engineering U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources
Language: English
Date published: 11/28/2023
Academic Unit: IIHR--Hydroscience and Engineering
Record Identifier: 9984515957802771

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