Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data

Jacqueline L Gauer; Josephine M Wolff; J Brooks Jackson

doi:10.3402/meo.v21.31795

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Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data

Journal article

Open access

Peer reviewed

Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data

Jacqueline L Gauer, Josephine M Wolff and J Brooks Jackson

Medical education online, Vol.21(1), 31795

2016

DOI: 10.3402/meo.v21.31795

PMCID: PMC5045966

PMID: 27702431

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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the associations and predictive values of Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) component and composite scores prior to 2015 with U.S. Medical Licensure Exam (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) scores, with a focus on whether students scoring low on the MCAT were particularly likely to continue to score low on the USMLE exams. Multiple linear regression, correlation, and chi-square analyses were performed to determine the relationship between MCAT component and composite scores and USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores from five graduating classes (2011-2015) at the University of Minnesota Medical School ( =1,065). The multiple linear regression analyses were both significant ( <0.001). The three MCAT component scores together explained 17.7% of the variance in Step 1 scores ( 0.001) and 12.0% of the variance in Step 2 CK scores ( <0.001). In the chi-square analyses, significant, albeit weak associations were observed between almost all MCAT component scores and USMLE scores (Cramer's V ranged from 0.05 to 0.24). Each of the MCAT component scores was significantly associated with USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores, although the effect size was small. Being in the top or bottom scoring range of the MCAT exam was predictive of being in the top or bottom scoring range of the USMLE exams, although the strengths of the associations were weak to moderate. These results indicate that MCAT scores are predictive of student performance on the USMLE exams, but, given the small effect sizes, should be considered as part of the holistic view of the student.

United States

Young Adult

Licensure, Medical - statistics & numerical data

Humans

Adolescent

Adult

Female

Linear Models

Male

College Admission Test - statistics & numerical data

Educational Measurement - statistics & numerical data

Details

Title: Subtitle: Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data
Creators: Jacqueline L Gauer - Medical School, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
Josephine M Wolff - Medical School, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
J Brooks Jackson - Medical School, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA; jacksonb@umn.edu
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Medical education online, Vol.21(1), 31795
DOI: 10.3402/meo.v21.31795
PMID: 27702431
PMCID: PMC5045966
NLM abbreviation: Med Educ Online
ISSN: 1087-2981
eISSN: 1087-2981
Publisher: United States
Language: English
Date published: 2016
Academic Unit: Pathology; VPMA - Administration
Record Identifier: 9984048000302771

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