Journal article
Do people desire optimism from others during a novel global crisis?
Journal of behavioral decision making, Vol.37(1), e2362
01/2024
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2362
Appears in UI Libraries Support Open Access
Abstract
During a global crisis, does the desire for good news also mean an endorsement of an optimistic bias? Five pre‐registered studies, conducted at the start of the COVID pandemic, examined people's lay prescriptions for thinking about uncertainty—specifically whether they thought forecasters should be optimistic, realistic, or pessimistic in how they estimated key likelihoods. Participants gave prescriptions for forecasters with different roles (e.g., self, family member, and public official) and for several key outcomes (e.g., contracting COVID and vaccine development). Overall, prescribed optimism was not the norm. In fact, for negative outcomes that were of high concern, participants generally wanted others to have a pessimistic bias in how they estimated likelihoods. For positive outcomes, people favored more accurate estimation. These patterns held regardless of the assumed forecaster's role. A common justification for advocating for a pessimistic bias in forecasts was to increase others' engagement in protective or preventative behaviors.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Do people desire optimism from others during a novel global crisis?
- Creators
- Jane E. Miller - Vanderbilt UniversityJeremy D. Strueder - University of IowaInkyung Park - University of IowaPaul D. Windschitl - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of behavioral decision making, Vol.37(1), e2362
- DOI
- 10.1002/bdm.2362
- ISSN
- 0894-3257
- eISSN
- 1099-0771
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Grant note
- DOI: 10.13039/100000001, name: National Science Foundation, award: SES‐1851738
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 11/14/2023
- Date published
- 01/2024
- Academic Unit
- Psychological and Brain Sciences
- Record Identifier
- 9984539651802771
Metrics
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