Journal article
Dynamic wildlife habitat mapping and attribution analyses reveal that wildfire, not fuels management, drives declines in an old forest species
Forest ecology and management, Vol.603, p.123386
03/01/2026
DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123386
Abstract
Intensifying disturbances such as high-severity wildfire and prolonged drought-related tree mortality – along with forest management activities intended to curb these disturbances – are reshaping wildlife habitat. As a result, older forest-dependent species are being affected in fire-prone forests. Yet, mapping these dynamic processes at fine spatial resolution across broad spatiotemporal scales remains challenging. Using 37 years (1986–2022) of California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) detection data from Southern California – the subspecies' southern range limit – we integrated a recently developed statewide fuels management database and remotely-sensed data with random forest models to (1) map annual habitat changes at 30-m resolution, and (2) attribute those changes to major disturbance types. Our analysis revealed that nesting/roosting habitat declined by 54 % since 1986, with 92 % of the remaining habitat concentrated in the San Bernardino National Forest. Prey acquisition habitat decreased by 40 % within this forest. Wildfire primarily drove nesting/roosting habitat loss, explaining 80 % of attributable declines post-2006, followed by drought/other (14 %) and fuels management (6 %). Potential territories with ≥ 48 ha of nesting/roosting habitat declined by 53 %, those with ≥ 48 ha of prey acquisition habitat declined by 47 %, and territories meeting both thresholds declined by 73 %. These results underscore dramatic habitat loss for spotted owls, highlight wildfire's disproportionate impact, and emphasize the San Bernardino National Forest’s importance as a refuge. Limited nesting/roosting habitat declines from fuels management highlight its potential to reduce wildfire impacts on older forests. By integrating species distribution models with multi-disturbance mapping, our study offers a regional-scale framework that can be transferred to other species and ecosystems to monitor habitat dynamics and disturbance impacts.
•A 30-m resolution model links habitat loss to fire, drought, and forest treatments.•Wildfire caused 80 % of owl nesting habitat loss in Southern California since 2007.•Fuels management caused minimal nesting habitat loss but can reduce wildfire impact.•Spotted owl nesting and foraging habitats declined 54 % and 40 % over 37 years.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Dynamic wildlife habitat mapping and attribution analyses reveal that wildfire, not fuels management, drives declines in an old forest species
- Creators
- Joshua M. Barry - University of Wisconsin–MadisonRonan Hart - University of New MexicoGavin M. Jones - University of New MexicoH. Anu Kramer - University of Wisconsin–MadisonKate A. McGinn - University of Wisconsin–MadisonM. Zachariah Peery - University of Wisconsin–Madison
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Forest ecology and management, Vol.603, p.123386
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123386
- ISSN
- 0378-1127
- eISSN
- 1872-7042
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/01/2026
- Academic Unit
- School of Earth, Environment, and Sustainability
- Record Identifier
- 9985219298702771
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