Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Noelle I Samia; Kyrre Linné Kausrud; Hans Heesterbeek; Vladimir Ageyev; Mike Begon; Kung-Sik Chan; Nils C Stenseth

doi:10.1073/pnas.1015946108

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Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Journal article

Open access

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Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Noelle I Samia, Kyrre Linné Kausrud, Hans Heesterbeek, Vladimir Ageyev, Mike Begon, Kung-Sik Chan and Nils C Stenseth

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.108(35), pp.14527-14532

08/30/2011

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1015946108

PMCID: PMC3167548

PMID: 21856946

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Abstract

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

Plague - transmission

Siphonaptera - microbiology

Animals

Humans

Rodentia - microbiology

Kazakhstan - epidemiology

Disease Reservoirs

Plague - epidemiology

Population Dynamics

Details

Title: Subtitle: Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds
Creators: Noelle I Samia - Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA. n-samia@northwestern.edu
Kyrre Linné Kausrud
Hans Heesterbeek
Vladimir Ageyev
Mike Begon
Kung-Sik Chan
Nils C Stenseth
Resource Type: Journal article
Publication Details: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, Vol.108(35), pp.14527-14532
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1015946108
PMID: 21856946
PMCID: PMC3167548
NLM abbreviation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
ISSN: 0027-8424
eISSN: 1091-6490
Publisher: United States
Language: English
Date published: 08/30/2011
Academic Unit: Statistics and Actuarial Science; Radiology
Record Identifier: 9983985861202771

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