Journal article
Economics, COVID, Election Forecasting: Did Trump Escape Blame?
American politics research, Vol.51(5), pp.619-632
09/2023
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231168584
Abstract
Given Trump’s provocative personal profile, coupled with boasts of his political prowess, one might expect that the electorate would not allocate praise or blame at the ballot box in the usual reward and punishment way. They might blame him more than other candidates or, indeed, they might blame him less. Utilizing election forecasting as a benchmark, in particular the structural model of political economy, we assess whether voters blamed him less for his faltering performance with respect to leading policy issues, particularly the economy and COVID-19. Our findings suggest that, contrary to claims from supporters, voters punished him at least as much as they punished past presidents, when confronted with similar issue contexts. The Trump image of a leader with superior powers has the character of fiction, rather than fact.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Economics, COVID, Election Forecasting: Did Trump Escape Blame?
- Creators
- Charles Tien - Hunter CollegeMichael S. Lewis-Beck - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- American politics research, Vol.51(5), pp.619-632
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- DOI
- 10.1177/1532673X231168584
- ISSN
- 1532-673X
- eISSN
- 1552-3373
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 04/17/2023
- Date published
- 09/2023
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984398210502771
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