Journal article
Effects of parameter uncertainty on long‐term simulations of lake alkalinity
Water Resources Research, Vol.26(3), pp.459-467
03/1990
DOI: 10.1029/WR026i003p00459
Abstract
A first‐order second‐moment uncertainty analysis has been applied to two lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, to assess the long‐term response of lakes to acid deposition. Uncertainty due to parameter error and initial condition error was considered. Because the enhanced trickle‐down (ETD) model is calibrated with only 3 years of field data and is used to simulate a 50‐year period, the uncertainty in the lake alkalinity prediction is relatively large. When a best estimate of parameter uncertainty is used, the annual average alkalinity is predicted to be −11 ±28 μeq/L for Lake Woods and 142 ± 139 μeq/L for Lake Panther after 50 years. Hydrologic parameters and chemical weathering rate constants contributed most to the uncertainty of the simulations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in long‐range predictions of lake alkalinity increased significantly over a 5‐ to 10‐year period and then reached a steady state.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Effects of parameter uncertainty on long‐term simulations of lake alkalinity
- Creators
- Sijin LeeKonstantine P GeorgakakosJerald L. Schnoor - University of Iowa
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Water Resources Research, Vol.26(3), pp.459-467
- DOI
- 10.1029/WR026i003p00459
- ISSN
- 0043-1397
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 03/1990
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering; Occupational and Environmental Health
- Record Identifier
- 9983557544402771
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