Journal article
Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom: A Two-Step Model
Journal of elections, public opinion and parties, Vol.19(3), pp.333-358
08/01/2009
DOI: 10.1080/17457280903074276
Abstract
Election forecasting in the United Kingdom has been experiencing a renaissance, as work travels from popularity function to vote function models. One strain of recent work stresses political economy explanations, while another stresses parsimonious prediction. Both approaches have their strengths, and are combined here in a two-step approach. First, a prediction equation is offered, based on a powerful empirical proxy variable for the election outcome itself. Second, an explanatory equation is offered, accounting theoretically for that proxy variable. This recursive system of equations is estimated, evaluated and found, by various diagnostics, to be extremely robust. Then, forecasts are rendered for multiple measures of UK election outcomes, in order to bring together the various measures that have appeared in the literature: government vote (and seats) share, opposition vote (and seats) share, government vote (and seats) lead. Finally, as a test, the model is applied to forecast the next UK general election under two scenarios. Using poll data from August 2007 and May 2009, we conclude that Gordon Brown missed a golden opportunity when he became leader of his party. While a snap election at that time would have led the sitting government to another victory, an election in the autumn of 2009 would result in the worst score for the Labour Party since 1992 and a return to the opposition benches.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom: A Two-Step Model
- Creators
- Richard Nadeau - Université de MontréalMichael S Lewis-Beck - University of IowaÉric Bélanger - McGill University
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Journal of elections, public opinion and parties, Vol.19(3), pp.333-358
- Publisher
- Routledge
- DOI
- 10.1080/17457280903074276
- ISSN
- 1745-7289
- eISSN
- 1745-7297
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 08/01/2009
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025656602771
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