Journal article
Election forecasting : political economy models
International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.41(4), pp.1655-1665
10/2025
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006
Abstract
We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely known approach; however, the lesser-known political economy models take a different scientific tack, relying on regression analysis and voting theory, particularly the force of “fundamentals.” We begin our discussion with two advanced industrial democracies, the US and UK. We then examine two less frequently forecasted cases, Mexico and Ghana, to highlight the potential for political-economic forecasting and the challenges faced. In evaluating the performance of political economy models, we argue for their accuracy but do not neglect lead time, parsimony, and transparency. Furthermore, we suggest how the political economic approach can be adapted to the changing landscape that democratic electorates face.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Election forecasting : political economy models
- Creators
- Michael S Lewis-Beck - University of IowaJohn Kenny - University of East AngliaDebra Leiter - University of Missouri–Kansas CityAndreas Erwin Murr - Centro de Investigación y Docencia EconómicasOnyinye B Ogili - University of MissouriMary Stegmaier - University of MissouriCharles Tien - Hunter College
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.41(4), pp.1655-1665
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.006
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- Language
- English
- Electronic publication date
- 03/18/2025
- Date published
- 10/2025
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984792359602771
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