Journal article
Election forecasting: Too far out?
International journal of forecasting, Vol.36(3), pp.949-962
07/2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.002
Abstract
We consider two criteria for evaluating election forecasts: accuracy (precision) and lead (distance from the event), specifically the trade-off between the two in poll-based forecasts. We evaluate how much “lead” still allows prediction of the election outcome. How much further back can we go, supposing we tolerate a little more error? Our analysis offers estimates of the “optimal” lead time for election forecasts, based on a dataset of over 26,000 vote intention polls from 338 elections in 44 countries between 1942 and 2014. We find that optimization of a forecast is possible, and typically occurs two to three months before the election, but can be influenced by the arrangement of political institutions. To demonstrate how our optimization guidelines perform in practice, we consider recent elections in the UK, the US, and France.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Election forecasting: Too far out?
- Creators
- Will Jennings - University of Southampton, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandMichael Lewis-Beck - University of Iowa, United States of AmericaChristopher Wlezien - University of Texas at Austin, United States of America
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- International journal of forecasting, Vol.36(3), pp.949-962
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.002
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- eISSN
- 1872-8200
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 07/2020
- Academic Unit
- Political Science; Rhetoric
- Record Identifier
- 9984025664902771
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