Journal article
Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case
International journal of forecasting, Vol.36(3), pp.892-898
07/2020
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.007
Abstract
Election forecasting models based on voting theories and estimated via regression analysis are routinely available for virtually all advanced industrial democracies. Denmark, however, offers an exception, for no such prediction equations have been published on the Danish case. This absence has sometimes been attributed to the puzzling nature of economic voting there, along with the complexity of its multi-party system, which renders formulation of the dependent variable problematic. We attempt to overcome these obstacles, offering a “synthetic” forecasting model for Danish national election outcomes, 1964–2015. The regression model, based on the variables of economic growth and vote intention, performs well, by various tests. Finally, we apply it, ex ante fashion, to the 2019 contest, where the prediction favored the Social Democratic led coalition, an outcome that came to pass.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case
- Creators
- Richard Nadeau - Department of Political Science, Université de Montréal, Pavillon Lionel-Groulx, 3150, rue Jean-Brillant, Montréal, H3T 1N8, CanadaMichael S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, United States of America
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- International journal of forecasting, Vol.36(3), pp.892-898
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.09.007
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- eISSN
- 1872-8200
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 07/2020
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025656102771
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