Journal article
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans
British journal of surgery, Vol.107(11), pp.1440-1449
10/01/2020
DOI: 10.1002/bjs.11746
PMCID: PMC7272903
PMID: 32395848
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancerversusbenign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90 center dot 2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72 center dot 3 per cent. Globally, 81 center dot 7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37 center dot 7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25 center dot 4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans
- Creators
- Dmitri Nepogodiev - University of BirminghamOmar M. OmarJames C. GlasbeyElizabeth LiJoana F. F. SimoesTom E. F. AbbottAdesoji O. AdemuyiwaBruce M. BiccardDaoud ChaudhryGiana H. DavidsonSalomone Di SaverioGaetano GalloEwen M. HarrisonPeter J. HutchinsonHaytham M. A. KaafaraniSivesh K. KamarajahDeborah S. KellerIsmail LawaniAna Minaya-BravoRachel MooreDion G. MortonFaustin NtirenganyaFrancesco PataRupert M. PearseAntonio Ramos-De la MedinaStephen TabiriMary L. VennAneel BhanguKwabena Siaw-AcheampongMichel AdaminaArnav AgarwalEhab AlameerDerek AldersonFelix AlakalokoOsaid AlserAlexis P. ArnaudKnut Magne AugestadBrittany K. Bankhead-KendallEmma BarlowRuth A. BensonRuth Blanco-ColinoAmanpreet BrarKerry A. BreenIgor Lima BuarqueEdward J. CaruanaSohini ChakraborteeDaniel CoxMiguel F. CunhaBrett E. DawsonAnant DesaiThomas D. DrakeJohn G. EdwardsMuhammed ElhadiJonathan P. EvansShebani FarikMarco FioreJ. Edward FitzgeraldSamuel FordGustavo Mendonca Ataide GomesEwen A. GriffithsRohan R. GujjuriConstantine HalkiasEmily HeritageArda IsikMichael D. JenkinsonConor S. JonesChetan KhatriJames M. KeatleyAngelos KoliasSamuel LawdayHans LederhuberSezai LeventogluMarkus W. LofflerJanet MartinHassan N. MashbariDennis MazingiSiobhan C. MckaySymeon MetallidisDavid MoszkowiczHelen M. MohanSusan MougJoshua S. Ng-KamstraMilagros NiquenOumaima OutaniGianluca PellinoThomas D. PinkneyPeter PockneyDejan RadenkovicKeith RobertsApril C. RoslaniIrene SantosAndrew SchacheAndreas A. SchnitzbauerGrant D. StewartRichard ShawSebastian ShuKjetil SoreideAntonino SpinelliSudha SundarAbhinav TiwariPhilip TownendIsobel M. TroutGeorgios TsoulfasGabrielle H. van RamshorstRaghavan VidyaDale VimalachandranOliver WarrenRichard J. W. WilkinNaomi WrightAndreas HoeftAndrew RhodesBenoit ValletBrigitte LevaClaudia SpiesJean-Louis VincentKim GolderMarta JanuszewskaPeter BauerPaolo PelosiPhilipp MetnitzRui MorenoRussell HewsonSandrine DamsterVasco RamosEric HosteLuc HuyghensRita JacobsVeerle Van MosseveldeGodelieve OpdenackerJan PoelaertCOVIDSurg CollaborativeAvraham D Levin - Gastroenterology and Hepatology
- Contributors
- Avraham D Levin (Contributor) - University of Iowa, Internal Medicine
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- British journal of surgery, Vol.107(11), pp.1440-1449
- DOI
- 10.1002/bjs.11746
- PMID
- 32395848
- PMCID
- PMC7272903
- NLM abbreviation
- Br J Surg
- ISSN
- 0007-1323
- eISSN
- 1365-2168
- Publisher
- Oxford Univ Press
- Number of pages
- 10
- Grant note
- Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland NIHR 16.136.79 / National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit Grant; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland NIHR Academy Bowel AMP; Cancer Research British Association of Surgical Oncology UK Government Sarcoma UK Bowel Disease Research Foundation Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons Yorkshire Cancer Research European Society of Coloproctology British Gynaecological Cancer Society
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 10/01/2020
- Academic Unit
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology; Internal Medicine
- Record Identifier
- 9984359775602771
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