Journal article
Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution
International journal of forecasting, Vol.26(1), pp.11-18
01/2010
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.04.002
Abstract
In the field of election forecasting, France is a lead case. Recently, however, certain modelers stumbled badly in their efforts to forecast the 2007 presidential election. The difficulty appears due partly to the single-equation format that has constrained past work, and partly to a failure to fully appreciate how key standard independent variables should be measured in the French context. As a potential remedy, we offer a multi-equation model, where the first equation gives strict emphasis to prediction, the second equation to explanation. By various statistical tests, this recursive system of equations manages the forecasting of Fifth Republic presidential elections remarkably well.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution
- Creators
- Richard Nadeau - Department of Political Science, Université de Montréal, CanadaMichael S Lewis-Beck - Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, USAÉric Bélanger - Department of Political Science, McGill University, 855 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T7, Canada
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- International journal of forecasting, Vol.26(1), pp.11-18
- Publisher
- Elsevier B.V
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.04.002
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- eISSN
- 1872-8200
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 01/2010
- Academic Unit
- Political Science
- Record Identifier
- 9984025658002771
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