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Estimating the health impact of climate change with calibrated climate model output
Journal article   Peer reviewed

Estimating the health impact of climate change with calibrated climate model output

Jingwen Zhou, Howard H Chang and Montserrat Fuentes
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, Vol.17(3), pp.377-394
08/09/2012
DOI: 10.1007/s13253-012-0105-y
PMCID: PMC3772546
PMID: 24039385
url
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3772546View
Open Access

Abstract

Studies on the health impacts of climate change routinely use climate model output as future exposure projection. Uncertainty quantification, usually in the form of sensitivity analysis, has focused predominantly on the variability arise from different emission scenarios or multi-model ensembles. This paper describes a Bayesian spatial quantile regression approach to calibrate climate model output for examining to the risks of future temperature on adverse health outcomes. Specifically, we first estimate the spatial quantile process for climate model output using non-linear monotonic regression during a historical period. The quantile process is then calibrated using the quantile functions estimated from the observed monitoring data. Our model also down-scales the gridded climate model output to the point-level for projecting future exposure over a specific geographical region. The quantile regression approach is motivated by the need to better characterize the tails of future temperature distribution where the greatest health impacts are likely to occur. We applied the methodology to calibrate temperature projections from a regional climate model for the period 2041 to 2050. Accounting for calibration uncertainty, we calculated the number of excess deaths attributed to future temperature for three cities in the US state of Alabama.
 Climate Change Climate models Global temperature changes Health aspects Analysis

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