Journal article
Evaluation of Hurricane Evacuation Order Plans: Hurricane Florence Case Study
Natural hazards review, Vol.23(4), 05022010
11/01/2022
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000589
Abstract
This paper introduces an approach to evaluate the performance of a previously implemented or proposed hurricane evacuation plan that describes where and when official evacuation orders are issued. The approach involves use of the new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) decision support tool to define a best track evacuation plan as a reference point and measure the performance of other plans in relation to that according to their ability to meet multiple stated objectives: minimizing risk to the population, travel time, and time people are away from their homes. Using North Carolina in Hurricane Florence (2018) as a case study, we demonstrate the process by evaluating performance of both the actual set of orders as executed and the orders that would have been recommended if the new ISE decision support tool had been used during the event. All three plans were evaluated for two cases-assuming the hurricane unfolds as it actually did, and if the hurricane had instead evolved like one of 21 other realistic scenarios. Results suggest the actual evacuation was quite good, and the ISE tool could have resulted in improved evacuation performance. (C) 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Details
- Title: Subtitle
- Evaluation of Hurricane Evacuation Order Plans: Hurricane Florence Case Study
- Creators
- Kun Yang - Verisk AnalyticsRachel A. Davidson - University of DelawareBrian Blanton - Renaissance Computing InstituteBrian Colle - Stony Brook UniversityRandall Kolar - University of OklahomaLinda K. Nozick - Cornell UniversityTricia Wachtendorf - University of DelawareNicholas Leonardo - Stony Brook UniversityHumberto Vergara - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological StudiesKendra Dresback - University of Oklahoma
- Resource Type
- Journal article
- Publication Details
- Natural hazards review, Vol.23(4), 05022010
- Publisher
- Asce-Amer Soc Civil Engineers
- DOI
- 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000589
- ISSN
- 1527-6988
- eISSN
- 1527-6996
- Number of pages
- 9
- Grant note
- CMMI-1331269 / National Science Foundation; National Science Foundation (NSF)
- Language
- English
- Date published
- 11/01/2022
- Academic Unit
- Civil and Environmental Engineering
- Record Identifier
- 9984446525202771
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